Will 2026 be the year buyers stop waiting? Forecasters are split, predicting anywhere from 1.7% 1 to 14% 2 growth in home sales. That 12-point gap reveals the central question facing the housing market: how much will slightly lower mortgage rates and slowly eroding lock-in effects actually unlock pent-up demand? Nearly every major forecaster agrees the market will be more active than 2025. But beyond that consensus, predictions diverge sharply on pace and scale. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) expects robust 14% sales growth. Realtor.com sees a modest 1.7% bump. Both could be right for different markets and price points. For anyone planning to buy, sell, or simply understand their home equity position in 2026, these diverging forecasts matter less than the underlying fundamentals. Mortgage rates should settle slightly lower. Inventory will improve modestly. Prices will continue rising, though more slowly than recent years. The market is thawing. More importantly, the hou...
